Veni, Vidi, VICI? - VICI Properties Stockanalysis and Valuation

Quick Overview

Country

USA

Ticker

VICI

Sector

Specialized REIT

Website

PE 2021

15,7

Yield 2021

4,89%

DISCLAIMER: I'm currently long VICI and my position is around 3,9% of my portfolio.


1. Introduction:

Research Date: 20.04.2022

VICI Properties Inc. is primarily engaged in the business of owning and acquiring gaming, hospitality, and entertainment destinations, subject to long-term triple net leases. It operates through two segments: real property business and golf course business. Across approximately 47 million square feet, its properties are located across urban, destination and drive-to markets in twelve states, contain approximately 17,800 hotel rooms and feature over 200 restaurants, bars and nightclubs. Its portfolio also includes approximately 34 acres of undeveloped land adjacent to the Las Vegas Strip that is leased to Caesars. Some of the most recognizable pieces of real estate they own are the Caesars Palace, the Harrah’s Las Vegas and the Harrah’s Atlantic City.

The Company also owns and operates four championship golf courses located near certain of its properties, two of which are near the Las Vegas Strip. Its golf courses include the Cascata golf course, Rio Secco golf course, Grand Bear golf course and Chariot Run golf course.


2. Business

VICI's 2020 revenue was composed as follows:

Sales per Business:


Source: https://www.marketscreener.com/


Sales per Region:

100% of the revenue was generated within the US. The locations VICI owns are well spread across the US, which can be seen in this graphic:



Source: https://viciproperties.com/


Vici will acquire competitor MGM Growth Properties in the first half of 2022, further diversifying its portfolio and providing further growth. MGM Growth Properties currently owns MGM Grand Las Vegas and the Mirage Las Vegas, to name a few recognizable names.


To summarize, Vici is the market leader for high quality gambling properties and hotels. Especially in Las Vegas their dominance from 2022 on is going to be massive.


3. Growth:

Since Vici Properties is a pretty new company, the Growth metrics are looking pretty good:


3Y. Average AFFO Growth (YoY): 64,3%

3Y. Average EBITDA Growth (YoY): 26,2%

3Y. Average Revenue Growth (YoY): 20,4%

3Y. Average Diluted EPS Growth (YoY): 28,8%

Here are the past growth values and the future forecasts in one diagram:

Source: https://www.marketscreener.com/ and https://seekingalpha.com/

4. Dividend:

Current Yield (April 20.): 4,5%

Payout Ratio: 80% (what you want to see for REITs)

Yearly Dividend Growth From 2019 to end 2021: 10,5%

Dividend Growth for 3 Years

Average Dividend Yield since founded: 4,7%

5. Debt:

With normal companies (not REITs) I'd like to see that the debt is smaller than 4 times EBIT to verify that the company isn’t taking too much debt.

With REITs this metric isn't usable. But their interest expenses of the last twelve months were 400 Mio. USD and their total Revenue was 1499 Mio. USD, which looks like a healthy ratio for a real estate company.

6. Valuation: (Current price: 29,9 USD)

The average Dividend Yield for the last 3 Years was around 4,7%. Given that, the fair price for VICI, only looking at the dividend would be around 31 USD. Which could mean that there is a margin of safety of around 3%.

On the Earnings side however, we got an average PE of 15,1 the last 3 years. Right now, the stock is trading for a PE of around 16, which suggests, that the stock is currently slightly overvalued.

Are we now looking at the Earnings Estimates for the end of 2023 and also factor in the average PE of about 15,1 we get a Target Stock Price of around 32,2 USD. Which would mean as much as a total return of approx. 7,4% p.a. (considering dividends).


Source: https://aktienfinder.net/aktienfinder

7. Conclusion:

7,4% p.a. is a moderate return. However, whether one personally wants to invest in gambling and thus in this stock is something that everyone has to decide for themselves. I currently hold shares of Vici which correspond to about 3,9% of my total investment portfolio and I'm currently not further adding to this position.



FINANCEFLASH Quality Score:


FINANCEFLASH Valuation Score:





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